Valuation pressure25% weight
65/100
How far prices and private valuations have moved ahead of visible fundamentals.
Independent public-signal research
AI Stock Bubble Index
Are AI stocks in a bubble? Current public signals show elevated bubble risk: infrastructure spending and valuations are running ahead of disclosed revenue, while real demand remains substantial.
We track the tension between market expectations and business evidence across AI stocks, compute spending, funding, concentration, and adoption.
15companies tracked
19published signals
8/19high-confidence signals
Weeklyreview cadence
Index history
Risk holds steady
What is driving the score
Spending is visible. Returns are less clear.
The index is highest where evidence is easiest to observe: infrastructure commitments and valuation pressure. It is lower where real revenue and adoption provide a counterweight.
- Risk signal
AI infrastructure intensity is the highest component at 90/100.
- Risk signal
Valuation pressure remains elevated at 65/100.
- Counter-signal
Revenue evidence from leading platforms prevents the reading from reaching the extreme range.
Method at a glance
Six signals, one composite reading
Infrastructure intensity20% weight
90/100
The scale of AI compute spending relative to near-term monetization.
Funding hype15% weight
53/100
Private capital velocity and valuation expansion across AI companies.
Market concentration15% weight
74/100
How much AI equity performance depends on a narrow group of companies.
Revenue uncertainty15% weight
72/100
The gap between AI investment and disclosed, durable AI revenue.
Attention intensity10% weight
100/100
Media and search attention compared with underlying business evidence.
Company monitor
Where expectations look most stretched
| Company | Type | Category | Bubble risk | Value evidence | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | private | model lab | 82 | 72 | medium |
| SoundHound AI | public | ai application | 82 | 48 | medium |
| Tempus AI | public | ai application | 78 | 62 | medium |
| Palantir | public | enterprise software | 76 | 70 | high |
| Pony AI | public | automotive ai | 75 | 52 | medium |
| BigBear.ai | public | ai application | 72 | 28 | low |
| Nvidia | public | chip | 64 | 88 | high |
| Meta | public | cloud | 61 | 82 | high |
| Microsoft | public | cloud | 58 | 84 | high |
| C3.ai | public | enterprise software | 55 | 35 | medium |
What changed