About AI Stock Bubble Index
AI Stock Bubble Index is an independent public-signal research project that tracks the tension between market expectations and business evidence across AI stocks, compute spending, funding, concentration, and adoption. Our goal is to provide transparent, source-backed data that helps investors evaluate AI stock bubble risk.
What we track
We monitor 15 companies across six categories: AI chips (Nvidia, AMD), cloud and hyperscale platforms (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle), enterprise AI software (Palantir, C3.ai), AI applications (Tempus AI, SoundHound AI, BigBear.ai, Pony AI), AI infrastructure (CoreWeave), and AI model labs (OpenAI, Anthropic). Public companies receive bubble risk and value evidence scores, while private companies are tracked as valuation and funding spillover signals.
Our composite index aggregates six drivers of bubble risk: valuation pressure (25% weight), infrastructure spending intensity (20%), funding hype (15%), market concentration (15%), revenue uncertainty (15%), and attention intensity (10%). Each driver is scored from 0 to 100 based on publicly available signals.
Our data sources
All signals are derived from public sources, including company earnings reports, SEC filings, press releases, industry research reports, and major financial news outlets. We do not use proprietary or non-public data. Every published signal includes a direct link to its source, a publication date, a collection date, and a confidence label.
Financial data for individual company analysis is sourced from public filings, earnings transcripts, and market data feeds. When we reference valuation multiples, revenue figures, or growth rates, we cite the specific filing or report from which the data is drawn.
Methodology and approach
Our methodology is designed to be inspectable. Every score, signal, and data point can be traced back to a primary source. We distinguish between high-confidence signals (those backed by official filings or direct disclosures) and lower-confidence signals (those based on secondary reporting or estimates). Pre-launch history is clearly labeled as backtested.
The index is not a price target, a forecast, or an investment recommendation. It is a research tool that measures the gap between market expectations and business evidence. A high index reading does not mean a crash is imminent, it means the risk-reward profile of AI stocks is elevated relative to historical norms.
Editorial standards
Our research follows a strict editorial process. All published content is reviewed for factual accuracy, source attribution, and methodological consistency. We do not accept paid placements or sponsored content. Our analysis is independent and is not influenced by any company, investor, or interest group.
Blog posts and stock analysis articles are written by our research team with backgrounds in finance, technology, and data analysis. Each article includes publication date, author attribution, and a clear distinction between factual data and analytical opinion.
Limitations and disclaimer
The AI Stock Bubble Index is a provisional research tool with important limitations. It relies on public signals, which may be incomplete or delayed. It does not account for private market conditions, insider information, or real-time order flow. The index should be used as one input among many in an investment decision process, not as a sole basis for any investment action.
All content on this site is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Read the full disclaimer.
Contact
We welcome feedback, corrections, and suggestions for new signals or companies to track. Contact us to share your input.